I believe we've waited long enough

Cheers to James Reade for writing this season preview

Another season begins. Without wishing to play the “my team’s harder than yours to support” card, the coming season will be Oldham Athletic’s 34th since they last achieved a promotion, back in the 1990/91 season. Excluding Premier League teams that have had plenty enough success over the years (Arsenal haven’t won promotion for 99 years now, as if we care), the closest team in terms of misery is Colchester United, who last won promotion a mere 19 years ago in 2005. Coventry City deserve a mention here; when they won promotion from League Two in 2017 it was their first promotion since 1966. They did spend 34 seasons in the top flight though along the way.

Anyhow, it’s another new season, and one which, perhaps understandably, we approach with some trepidation. Gone is the bravado of last season’s marquee signings and “let’s go and win the league”, somewhat thankfully. But maybe also gone is some of the optimism that was associated with that giddy week in August 2023. It was burst by yet another bad start to the season. A particularly shockingly bad start, with a 4-0 hammering at Southend, a team that were on the brink of collapse and might not even have begun the season.

And we are bad at starting seasons. Over the last 13 seasons, we’ve managed to win just once (a 4-3 win at Stevenage), we’ve grabbed three draws (including a sunny 0-0 at Torquay in our first non-league match in 115 years in 2022), and lost the other nine.

Over and above all of that, much of the summer’s transfer activity has been an attempt at rectifying the woefully imbalanced squad that last summer’s recruitment left us with – no right back all season and five strikers (only two of which have actually proven worth the investment, one of whom is yet to play at all in pre-season).

So, there’s not a huge amount to feel positive about… is there? Those who remain on Twitter will know that I have been described on multiple occasions by multiple people as a “happy clapper”, and it stands to reason that, despite all that, I am feeling optimistic.

Is it just that optimism that comes before each season begins? The sunny August afternoon, the anticipation, all before a ball is even kicked in anger? Well, we have signed some full backs, and solid ones at that. Reagan Ogle looks assured and Jake Caprice has bags of experience. Yes he is one of seven players in the squad north of 30, but there is youth in the ranks. Jes Uchegbulam has joined and looks threatening on the wing, Ogle is in his prime at 25, while Harry Charsley (midfield) and Josh Kay (on the wing) were born within 4 days of each other *only* 27 years ago. We’ve also signed an absolute monster in Manny Monthe, a centre half who, importantly, is able to use his left foot.

We didn’t need to add in a replacement for every player we shipped out (Green, Nuttall, Willoughby, Dickensen, Hope, McGahey, Tollitt, Shelton, Ward and Sheron). Our squad was undoubtedly too big last season with everything that that entailed.

All sorts can be inferred from pre-season should we wish to – but then, what’s new? These are friendly matches used by the coaching staff for a whole range of purposes – giving fringe players opportunities, looking at trialists and trying to make the most substitutions known to man. We played at home against three League One teams and didn’t concede a goal, winning two and drawing one. Though we only scored two. We lost at Warrington Rylands, Southport and Radcliffe Borough – none of which gives hope given we struggled most against the smaller/weaker teams last season. But there’s little doubt that those defeats were in matches where we played more trialists and fringe players, we lost (or threw away a 3-goal lead).

So, what can we expect? It seems we can expect a tighter defence, potentially slightly more balance at the back with a hope that we can retain and build possession better. Can our retained midfield options (Lundstram, Gardner, Hammond) combine with Charsley and our new wide players to enable us to both break up opposition play and create opportunities for our forward players? Can our ageing forward line stay fit? Already the omens aren’t great with Norwood and Garner seemingly continually out “for a few weeks”.

Our opening three fixtures (Braintree H, Wealdstone A, AFC Fylde H) are, on paper, forgiving, and *should* (with the emphasis firmly on should) give us a base to build on. They will at least tell us whether the difficulty we had in facing smaller opponents last season has been addressed.

After that we have five likely tough fixtures – all against teams in the mixer around us last season (until we fell away after February): Aldershot A, Gateshead H, Altrincham A, Southend H and Halifax H. But if we are to challenge at the top, we need to be taking as an absolute minimum 7 or 8 points from these games, and ideally more.

The rest of September is southern – two long trips (Woking and Ebbsfleet) and two teams making the long journey to Boundary Park (Yeovil and Forest Green). In November we go to title favourites Barnet – progression says we should win 5-1 there, and we make the short trip to Spotland hoping for another three points, but perhaps without 16 minutes of injury time. On Boxing Day we host York five days after our the first of just two new grounds this season: Braintree on December 21. Our other new ground is Tamworth on March 8. Boston United’s new stadium will be new for us, although we did visit Boston way back in 1952 in the FA Cup.

The back-to-back fixtures over Christmas and New Year have been ditched by the National League, and we go to York on Easter Monday instead, just two weeks before the regular season finishes on May 5 when we host Ebbsfleet.

Recent seasons lead us to expect that we’ll stumble into the FA Cup First Round, adjusting as we are to the ignominy of having to qualify, and we’ll stumble even more when faced with some pub outfit aspiring to be a leisure centre in the FA Trophy. Nobody seems to fancy us much this season (bookies have us roughly fourth favourites it seems), which perhaps means we won’t have to watch some of our most appalling performances live on TV.

Failure to make the play-offs will rightly be seen as a failure. Even if, on average, relegated Football League teams take four seasons to return to the League, three seasons without even troubling the playoffs will not sit well. So we have to be pushing two points a game throughout the season – not just after the first ten games and before the last 16. Even an underwhelming start – especially given the opposition – will lead to increasingly clamour for managerial change.

Everything points towards plenty of pissboil this season – every defeat will feel like a setback, especially if it comes once again at the hands of the likes of Fylde, Ebbsfleet, Tamworth and Braintree. But maybe, just maybe, things might be different? There won’t be a Wrexham, Notts County or Chesterfield to dominate in all likelihood, and while Barnet are favourites and look strong, the extent of their recruitment may mean it takes them some time to gel together.

No team is owed success; surely, though, even by random chance teams have successful seasons every now and again (you know, 5% of the time say, once in twenty years). We last made the play-offs 22 years ago, we last finished above 10th 17 years ago. Surely it’s about time, even just by random chance?

Photos © Oldham Athletic